It was not only the bureaucrats who performed admirably, policing crime like few believed possible, home affairs getting hundreds of thousands of visitors through immigration at the airports courteously and efficiently, municipalities implementing transport plans, cleaning organising, and many more dysfunctional government and quasi government departments that seemed to wake up and get into gear, but our formal economy who put together the world leading stadiums, roads, airports and modern railways in very tight timelines, showing what we can achieve and that we still have the skills to pull off hairy audacious projects.

But the most exciting thing for me was the way ordinary South Africans got stuck in as a huge family, supporting out team, sure, but also becoming ambassadors in small ways, cumulatively adding up to the biggest PR and marketing expose ever in Africa.

So let’s now move into a period of working to win (and not for the elite few). Lets no longer be blackmailed by political rhetoric that belongs in the past. Lets shut down the “tendopreneurs”, the leeches who suck, steal and poison the poor and the vulnerable, while at the same time pretending to represent them.

And housing can be a creator, a huge driver in this new era. The old Western economies are not going to be growing fast enough to pull us up by our bootstraps, and our exports are expensive in international terms, so growth will have to be domestic. We will have to do it ourselves….but we can.

I say drop interest rates again, get the bank’s lending, get some skills into the municipalities so developers can build houses. Not only will the building sector create the right type of employment, but the secondary industries including furnishings and fittings which will give the local economy a big boost. Increased receipts from company taxes and transfer duties will prop up the huge social spend that we have to have. Lets encourage international investment, in fact I would take it a step further and market South Africa as a retirement destination for wealthy foreigners. Government will have to act, showing the world clearly what our policy is to foregion investment in local real estate and how important the constitution is to the people.

According to ‘Economist’ magazine, The publication’s Global House Price Index shows that SA house prices rose by a cumulative 418% over the past 12 years (1997-2009). That far outstrips any of the other 20 housing markets tracked by the index. The next best performers were Australia, Britain and Spain with growth of 181 %, 175% and 167% respectively. While some of those countries may have relapsed recently, South Africa escaped the global crises very well, and most of our losses have been recovered in terms of house prices.

So would that not mean that South Africa should be a safe haven property investment destination for foreigners?

And that gets me back to my point of the successful world cup. Lets follow up with proudly presenting property, and lifestyle investments to those foreigners who got to see the true South Africa. And lets not forget about the million or two skilled South Africans that are living abroad – come back, bring your skills and capital and we can show Brasil, China, Russia and India how to eradicate poverty in 10 years.

Its really that easy, just like hosting the biggest world event, SUCESSFULLY. It depends if you really want to do it?

- Annual price increase is 9.7% Page 4
On an annual basis, in February, the average price of all residential property transactions in England & Wales was 9.7% higher than a year ago – a significant market recovery. It is the fourth consecutive month in which the annual rate of change in house prices is positive.

- January housing transactions fall by more than 50% from December levels Page 3
The housing market in England & Wales got off to a very slow start in January 2010 with an estimated 36,000 transactions in total. This is a fall of 52% from the December 2009 level of activity and is the second lowest level of sales in January in the last 16 years.

Dr Peter Williams, Chairman of Acadametrics, said
“The average price of a home rose again in February 2010 and, at £222,008, is back to where it was in April 2007, three years ago. The increase of 1.9% is the tenth in succession and a further step up from the previous month of January at 1.4%. Given that the two lender mortgage approval based indices for February showed falls of -1.0% and -1.5%, we have a clear tension as to what is really happening in the market. The AcadHPI for the latest month is forecast on a mix of data but, as prior months show, when more data becomes available is impressively stable and reliable. In seeking answers to the current divergence we would stress AcadHPI is a completion based measure, it covers England and Wales rather than the UK and it includes all properties sold including cash purchases and homes sold for over £1 million. All of these will be factors in explaining the difference.”

Click below to download the full document…

http://www.ipsinvest.com/News_196_UK_Property_Report_Grew_by_19_in_Feb_10.aspx

It is well documented that it comes to investing in Property knowledge is power. The world economy is improving and property will regain its status as a safe haven for investors, a perfect time for a seminar on property. Eight Thought leaders have got together to bring you an evening of thought provoking and informative topics including, international investment, opportunities in Emerging countries, new local opportunities in the buy to let and sectional title hotel category, as well as a range of other topics. The seminar will be held in the evening, over 3 hours, with presentations of 15 minutes each followed by a panel discussion with question and answers. Networking, and refreshments will be provided afterwards.

WHO AND WHAT

Speakers are industry leaders in their respective fields:

Neale Petersen – How to invest now! What are the new elements of investment in dramatically different market.
Jose’ Delgado – Dealing with death, taxes, creditors, divorce, etc. and the benefits of trust and corporate structures.
Janine Barry – “Property Afri-nomics”, the way of business in Africa and purchasing property in The Fourth Economy – the experience economy.
Meyer de Waal – Financial fitness to manage your own finances. Rent to buy the new lending rules that apply to everyone.
Justin Clarke – Change and how online tools have made investing in property easier. Searching and finding the right property.
Scott Picken – Property trends happening in US, UK, Europe, Australia, and China & the impact it will have in SA markets.
Kura Chihota – The Search for Value – Real Estate In Africa” Case studies from Zimbabwe and Ghana.
Andrew Thompson – Sectional Title Hotel Room Investments – Why it works as an investment model

WHEN

Pretoria Country Club – 17th May 2010
Johannesburg – Grayston Southern Sun – 18th May 2010
Durban – Riverside Hotel – 19th May 2010
Cape Town – Radisson CPT – 20th May 2010

COSTS

The fee per person is R495.00 but book now and qualify for an early bird discount – Price only R395.00

BOOKING

Online booking – click here
Early Bird Bookings per delegate, before 30 April: R395
After 30 April: R495 per delegate

Account Name: Delgado Velosa Kenworthy & Associates
Bank: Standard Bank
Trust Account
Account No: 072620552
Branch Code: 025109

Reference: PWN and surname
Email proof of payment to rochelle@propertywealthnetwork.co.za or fax to 021 790 8760
Email Booking and City to rochelle@propertywealthnetwork.co.za

Rochelle Cell 083 259 0562, Office 021 790 0238

Napoleon said, “Information was nine tenths of any battle.” The challenge is do you have the right information, are you choosing the right partners, making the right investments and most importantly asking the right questions?

1. 1. Information – like water, the right information makes you finically healthier, but the wrong information is like poison.
   1. 80% of people who invest offshore lose money and the investment becomes a tremendous headache in a short space of time! According to Real Estate Web -http://www.realestateweb.co.za/realestateweb/view/realestateweb/en/page206?oid=54920&sn=Detail – you could also make far better returns in South Africa.
   2. The reason for this is that people make decisions without the right information.  Sure the sales person gives them allot of information, but invariably they will give people what they want to hear?
   3. An example of this is in the last few months South Africans have bought $184 million on the Gold Coast in Australia. They think they are getting a real bargain, but when you talk to Richard Dunn, OzInvest Acquisition Manager, a company who spends millions on research, says, “We get offered opportunities on the Gold Coast every day! At the moment we would never offer these to our investors as there are huge vacancies and the property values are in real trouble.” Similar examples are Manchester or Leeds, where South African investors believed they were buying real value (perceived huge discounts) and yet there is huge oversupply, banks are not lending and there are huge rental problems. Do we need to talk about the information presented on Dubai and how that has changed?
   4. The questions you need to be asking:
      1. i.      “How much do you spend on your research monthly?”
      2. ii.      “Can you show me how you have communicated this research over the last couple of years, so that I can see you really understand your market?”
      3. iii.      “Can I see the research from an entity that doesn’t have a vested interest in selling something to me and who substantiates this information?”
      4. iv.      If someone is based in South Africa – “How often do you travel over to the investment country to understand the market and make sure you are keeping up to speed with current trends?”

1. 2. Partners – the key to the vault of success!
   1. In life there is a saying, a chain is only as strong as its weakest link.
   2. Investors often underestimate how important the choice in your partner is to your long term success. Dr Dolf DeRoos, the World Famous International Property Investors says, “You are only as strong as your team.”
   3. Many investors invest because they like the salesmen, they have been referred by a friend or they associate with a brand. This can be catastrophic to your success!
   4. The questions you need to be asking:
      1. i.      “How long have you been helping people invest internationally?”
      2. ii.      “How many people have you assisted to invest in this specific country?”
      3. iii.      “Is this your core business, or something which is supplementary to your estate agency business where you help people buy homes?
      4. iv.      “Are you a property investor yourself and have you bought international property?”

1. 3. Rentals – the life blood of property investment!
   1. Property Investment fundamentals live and die on cashflow. Experienced property investors understand this and it is why they succeed in all property cycles. Inexperienced investors are always chasing the bargain, and yet often they find a great bargain or focus on capital growth, only to realise there is no rental market. This often destroys the investment and in many instances them financially.
   2. Examples of this are Manchester where you can get 60% discounts but there are 2000 units oversupplied on the market. Dubai which is also at a 60% discount, but has massive oversupply problems (The numerous developers who offered rental guarantees who have gone bust are testament to this). And then Las Vegas which is 70% down, but there are 5000 families leaving a month as tourism is down by 60% and there are 32 000 homes on the market.
   3. If there is one thing you have to be certain on is the rental market and where this demand is going to come from. You need to ask:
      1. i.       “How can you ensure me of the demand for my property when it is ready to rent?”

• I am not talking about a 1 or 2 year rental guarantee from the developer, which has often been included in the price. I am talking about me receiving long term sustainable rental income at market related rates from the demand which exists.

1. ii.      “Are you prepared to put your money where your mouth is based on this guarantee or assurance?”

• How would you sustain this long term if you were wrong?

1. 4. Local & International Offices – geography is so NB!
   1. Many salesmen will travel to South Africa with a suitcase, put on a classy presentation, meet you in a hotel, sign you up, take your money and then leave in a couple of days. This is where all the problems start and you can’t get hold of them or find out what is happening, etc. and this is how a “great investment” (supposedly) turns into a lemon.
   2. To be successful you need to ensure the partner you choose to invest with, not only has offices in the foreign country, but also offices and a physical presence in South Africa. It makes such a difference when you can speak to a local South African on the phone, on the same time scales and if needs be come and see them in their office whenever it suits you.
   3. Questions you need to be asking:
      1. i.      “Where are you offices in South Africa and in the country I am investing in?”
      2. ii.      “If you don’t have offices in South Africa, how can I ensure that you will still be here in a couple of months or years when I need help with the investment I have bought?”
      3. iii.      “I would like to visit the property. Who is going to show me around overseas?”
      4. iv.      “How do you understand the market unless you have someone who is permanently looking for opportunities and living in the property market?”

1. 5. After Sales Support – the helping hand you need! Trust me!
   1. Most investors only focus on the purchase of the property and they forget how important it is to manage the sale. Salesmen are also only interested in closing the sale, but most importantly not to help you right through the process, when you are investing from afar. Many companies claim to provide the full service to you, but where are they based and how are they going to do it?
   2. Questions which you need to ask:
      1. i.      “How big is your aftersales team and who will be assisting me personally making sure the property transfers timeously into my name?”

• Sorry I am not talking about the salesmen, I want an Aftersales Professional who has been dealing in this for many years and understands the nuances between South African property and overseas property.

1. ii.      “What happens when the property is ready? Who will be assisting me with transfer of the property, inspections, etc?”
2. iii.      “Can I see referrals from people who were happy with your service?”

With these simple questions you can ensure you don’t buy lemons and you can take advantage of the significant opportunities. It is not only wise it is prudent to invest some of your wealth in foreign markets. In the Real Estate article above it talks of the tremendous opportunities locally. We completely agree with this and continue to make great money in South Africa, through the use of strategic partners as they suggest. However once you have made this money, it is essential, if not irresponsible not to, to take some of this wealth and invest overseas. To achieve your goals of Asset Preservation, Capital Growth, a Rand Hedge, Diversification and Positive Cashflow in first world currencies – you need the right information and partners and most importantly to be asking the right questions!

Good luck!

Scott Picken

IPS CEO

www.ipsinvest.com

The average price of all residential property transactions completed in England & Wales in January 2010 was 0.7% higher than in December. This is the ninth month in succession in which AcadHPI has increased on a monthly basis.

 Annual price increase is 5.4% Page 4

On an annual basis, in January, the average price of all residential property transactions in England & Wales was 5.4% higher than a year ago – a significant market recovery. It is the third consecutive month in which the annual rate of change in house prices is positive.

 December transactions are the highest for two years, helped by the stamp duty holiday Page 3

This was a strong end to 2009 which had seen the lowest number of annual housing transactions in England and Wales since the Land Registry began computerising its records in 1995. The market in December was assisted by an increase in the sale of properties valued below £175,000, with purchasers seeking to take advantage of the stamp duty holiday which ended on 31 December 2009.

Dr Peter Williams, Chairman of Acadametrics, said
“The average price of a home rose again in January 2010 and, at £215,016, is almost back to where it was in January 2007, three years ago. The increase of 0.7% is the ninth in succession, suggesting a recovery that is now well entrenched. However, the rise from 0.4% in December to 0.7% in January is modest, and it is hard to draw firm conclusions, given that the monthly increase had been slowing since September and there are strong regional variations in the recovery story. Without doubt, year end activity was heightened by the anticipated end of year closure of the stamp duty holiday for properties up to £175,000 which had been in place since September 2008 as we discuss later. This factor, along with historically low interest rates for some borrowers and much else, adds layers of complexity in trying to anticipate what the market might do next.”

“The average price of a home in England & Wales is now £215,016. At this level, it is still down £16,812 or 7% from its peak in February 2008 of £231,828, but prices have recovered significantly and the index is showing a 5.4% increase over the last twelve months. The fact that there remain strong regional variations in this reported trend does mean that household experience will vary considerably, although prices in all regions are currently moving in the same direction – upwards.

“It is clear that, with average monthly increases of 0.6% over the last three months compared to double that (1.2%) over the previous three months, price increases have been moderating, and it is too early to say with any confidence as to whether this trend will continue. Published house price forecasts for the year vary from plus 10% to minus 10%, which gives a clear sense of the current uncertainty. Total mortgage lending for 2009 was £143.5 billion gross and £11.5 billion net, down from £254 billion gross and £41 billion net in 2008. The latest Trends in Lending report published by the Bank of England in late January noted some improvement in credit availability and for higher loan to value ratios. The evidence supports the view that the thaw continues, but there is little to suggest there will be a sharp recovery in mortgage volumes. Furthermore, the recent statement by the Council of Mortgage Lenders concerning the need for continued governmental assistance for lender funding sends a clear warning of possible consequential future mortgage constraint, raised interest rates and falling house prices. Uncertainty alone will restrain the market.”

HOUSING TRANSACTIONS
“Overall, the number of housing transactions in England and Wales has increased by 51% during Q4 2009 (October–December 2009) compared with the same three months in 2008. The year began on an all time low of 27,637 monthly transactions, representing a 60% reduction on the 15-year average for January of 67,378 monthly transactions. However, during the year the monthly transaction count rose, with December sales reaching an estimated 76,000, the highest level since December 2007 – a figure which will have been influenced by the year end cessation of the stamp duty holiday for homes costing up to £175,000. Some might say of the year – in like a lamb and out like a lion!

“The 51% increase in annual transactions has two distinct underlying trends. The first trend is of a North/Midlands/South gradation in the increase in the number of homes sold. In the Northern regions and Wales, the average increase in housing transactions has been 34% or less; in the Midlands the increase has been between 42% and 56% whilst, in the Southern regions including London, there has been an annual increase of 66% to 68% in the number of properties sold.

“The second trend is one of different activity levels by property type. Over the three months October–December 2009, compared with the same three months in 2008, increases in the numbers of properties sold have been as follows: detached 69%, semi-detached 61%, terraces 46% and flats 26%.

“Comparing Q4 2009 with Q3 2009 these trends appear to be changing. The increase in the number of housing transactions in London over the period is 0.2%, whilst in the rest of the country the increase has been an average of 6%. The volume of flats, terraced and semi-detached homes sold has similarly increased by 6% over this period, whilst sales of detached properties have increased by a more modest 1%. The mini-boom in the purchase of detached properties in the southern counties would thus appear to be over, at least for the time-being.”

Download the full document here -http://www.ipsinvest.com/News_187_UK_Property_is_up_07_in_Jan_2010_9th_consecutive_month_of_growth.aspx

One of the things I like most about this asset class is the gentle turns the market makes. The curve runs pretty much in line with interest rate adjustments and property prices rise and fall, gracefully from bull to bear like a dancer in a ballet. When the tempo of the music changes we anticipate changes in the dance.

The last 18 months has given us change, almost from classical dance to Hip Hop, and we have seen house prices decline, and now commercial and industrial declines as leases run out, or tenants default. But the tempo of the music has changed and we now must anticipate how the dance will change, and when the curve will bounce back into the positive.

We have seen the interest rates cycle reaching the bottom as the reserve bank hold rates steady, a major indicator that we are at the bottom of the curve. Lightstone (who provide most house price data to the banks) announced that their House Price index, which tracks “repeat sale” house prices, shows that house price inflation is up in February. They suggest monthly inflation for all segments is heading upwards with some segments showing a sharp increase in monthly inflation. Find details on www.lightstone.co.za

But is this dead cat bounce or is the real deal?

Let’s consider the other major drivers of house prices. DEMAND – The more buyers there are looking for property the more sellers can ask for the property. But we know the banks had the taps closed tight, and were not lending to average purchasers. Whatever they say, you can see the latest mortgage advances data released shows that year-on-year growth in mortgage advances slowed down to 9,4% in May – the lowest since September 2000. But it seems the brakes are coming off. Richard Gray, CEO of the second biggest mortgage originator BondChoice, claims they have seen an increase of 15% in sales volumes from May to June. He says Standard Bank are making “positive noises” about returning to the origination market and FNB have relaxed its credit criteria in the last few days making it easier for buyers to obtain a loan. This will undoubtedly add buyers to the pot. Estate Agents advertising on Private Property also indicated they had improved figures for June, with houses that were sitting on their books finally selling.

SUPPLY – The amount of stock on the market is relevant. While there are still developers with unsold inventory, we see that the volume of new house plans submitted has dropped by 50% so we know there is not much new stock coming to market. Other urgent sellers would be the banks selling off houses that they would have had to foreclose on, and although this could be a wild card, the volume of Properties in Possession of the banks is not increasing significantly.

By all accounts it seems that the dance has changed, and the only question is will it stay flat, and how quickly will it turn Bullish.

Scott
Picken, CEO from International Property Solutions (IPS) runs through everything in the Australian Property
market and we also have Richard Dunn, Oz Invest’s Acquisition Manager,
live from Australia (3:30am in the morning) to tell us exactly what is
happening in the property market.

Richard goes through some very exciting opportunities in the pipeline, including all major cities like Sydney.

If Offshore Investment is something you are interested in, and Australia
is something you are considering, then this is not a presentation to
miss.

Come join us live on the 27th of Oct in JHB and the 5th of Nov in Pretoria. Click here – http://www.ipsinvest.com/Events.aspx

Go to www.ipsinvest.com for more opportunities in Australia.

Click below for the full report – http://www.ipsinvest.com/News.aspx?id=180

The last time RP Datas Property Pulse commented on international markets was about this time last year in response to speculation that Australias housing market would follow the same downwards trend as the US and UK. At that time we suggested comparing these markets was like comparing chalk and cheese. There were (and still are) fundamental differences such as the strength of Australias financial sector, the imbalance between Australia’s housing supply and demand, our economic outlook and our current monetary environment.

Needless to say, the Australian residential property market weathered the GFC storm quite well with national home values falling by just 3.8 percent from peak to trough. Since values bottomed in December last year national home values have increased a further 3.8 percent beyond the most recent peak.

Finally there is some good news for our most comparable markets. As confidence returns to international markets, housing prices in the US, UK and New Zealand appear to have turned the corner. From peak to trough US house prices fell by 23.6 percent (based on the First American House Price Index), UK prices were down 22.6 percent (based on the Halifax Index), and New Zealand values fell by 9.6 percent (based on the House Price Index from Property IQ). Since hitting the bottom US values are up 5.7%, UK values have improved 4.2% and New Zealand home values are up 1.3%.

Go to http://ipsinvest.blogspot.com/2009/10/australia-looking-good-in-global.html to view graphs.

Over the last five years the New Zealand market has provided the best annualised return of the four countries compared. Despite the recent value falls recorded between January 08 and April 09 the New Zealand market has provided an annual capital gain 5.9 percent compared with Australia’s annualised capital growth of 5.6 percent. The UK housing sector returned just 0.1 percent per annum and the US provided a negative rate of growth of -1.5 percent per annum.

Comparing some of the key factors which are likely to impact on the residential property markets around the nation; it appears that Australia is well placed to record further growth in housing values.

Over 2009 Australia is likely to be the only advanced economy (as defined by the International Monetary Fund) to record a positive growth in the gross domestic product. The IMF estimated in their latest World Economic Outlook that Australian real GDP growth would be 0.7 percent at the end of 2009 before accelerating to 2.0 percent in 2010. This estimate is well above the average for advanced economies where real GDP growth is estimated to be -3.4 percent in 2009 and 1.3 percent in 2010.

Go to http://ipsinvest.blogspot.com/2009/10/australia-looking-good-in-global.html to view graphs.

Unemployment in Australia is also projected to remain well below the average rate of unemployment forecast for the world’s advanced economies. The IMF estimates Australia’s rate of unemployment will reach 6.0 percent in 2009 (Australia’s unemployment rate is currently 5.8 percent after reaching a low of 3.9 percent in February 2008) and 7.0 percent in 2010 substantially less than the 8.25 per cent estimated in the Government’s May budget and also well below the forecast average rate for advanced economies which the IMF projects to be 9.3 percent by 2010.

Go to http://ipsinvest.blogspot.com/2009/10/australia-looking-good-in-global.html to view graphs.

Australia’s financial markets are also in comparatively healthy shape. Australia’s largest banks enjoy a AA rating from Standard and Poor’s and mortgage defaults are less than 0.5 percent. Although interest rates are set to rise further, mortgage rates remain well below the historical average of 8.8 percent over the last 20 years. The fact that interest rates are about to rise can be construed as a strong testament to the health of the domestic economy.

Go to http://ipsinvest.blogspot.com/2009/10/australia-looking-good-in-global.html to view graphs.

There are a variety of other factors that will assist in propelling Australian property values upwards. The disconnect between demand and supply, which has been well documented, will be the primary driver of housing prices over the coming years. This is arguably the most significant difference between the Australian and US housing markets whilst the US market is well and truly over supplied, the Australian market place is suffering from a lack of new homes being constructed.

The factors outlined above set Australia apart from other countries and provide an insight as to why the domestic real estate market has remained relatively buoyant when compared with other western nations.

Go to http://ipsinvest.blogspot.com/2009/10/australia-looking-good-in-global.html to view graphs.

Go to www.ipsinvest.com for more opportunities in Australia.