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	<title>Property Tribe &#124; A South African Property Blog &#187; Scott Picken</title>
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	<link>http://www.propertytribe.co.za</link>
	<description>The Property Tribe is A South African Blog for anything property related, where the ordinary person has the opportunity to blog their opinion on Property.</description>
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		<title>10 lessons from property in 2011 – what you need to know!</title>
		<link>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/10-lessons-from-property-in-2011-%e2%80%93-what-you-need-to-know/720/</link>
		<comments>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/10-lessons-from-property-in-2011-%e2%80%93-what-you-need-to-know/720/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Dec 2011 15:16:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Scott Picken</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Property News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.propertytribe.co.za/?p=720</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Dear Property Investors
“Learning is the beginning of wealth. Learning is the beginning of health.
Learning is the beginning of spirituality. Searching and learning is where
the miracle process all begins.” Jim Rohn
2011 is but a memory. It was an amazing year, full of opportunity and challenges. However everything has to be taken into context as we move [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dear Property Investors</p>
<p><em>“Learning is the beginning of wealth. Learning is the beginning of health.<br />
Learning is the beginning of spirituality. Searching and learning is where<br />
the miracle process all begins.<strong>”</strong></em> Jim Rohn</p>
<p>2011 is but a memory. It was an amazing year, full of opportunity and challenges. However everything has to be taken into context as we move forward into 2012. The definition of stupidity is, <strong><em>“</em></strong><em>there is no problem with making a mistake, it is when you make the same mistake again and don’t learn from it, that is stupidity.<strong>”</strong></em></p>
<p>For this reason, <em>Scott Picken, IPS CEO</em> wanted to share with you his top 10 lessons from 2011 in property:</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>Income</strong> – Once again this is the most important      lesson of the year. Wise investors focus on income only when investing. If      you buy the right property, the capital growth will come with time, but if      you focus on income, then it will provide you with the balance to ensure      that whatever happens in the market you can ride the wave. From the      biggest property funds in the world to individual investors, when they      focus on capital growth, they crumble when the market turns. Only invest      in property with secure rental demand and you can join the really      successful investors who make the most money in these troubled times.</li>
<li><strong>Bad      developers </strong>–      according to research 93% of people are dissatisfied with what they buy      from developers. I invested with one of the top (not anymore) developers      in Cape Town and the product they handed over they should be ashamed of.      They own none of the units themselves (always a massive sign) and they      blame everything on maintenance, except the building is falling apart      after only 2 years. The beauty is though that these developers’ days are      numbered. They launched another development this year and the problem is      the public is none the wiser as they have another nice marketing budget      and they sell to more unsuspecting clients. This is going to stop very      soon. With the internet, social media and social proofing your track      record will follow you and they won’t be able to get away with it.      Personally I am taking them to the NHRBC, but even if that doesn’t work,      social media will be their downfall, if they and other developers don’t up      their game, have pride in what they deliver and provide quality after      sales service. In 2012 we will be launching Property Watch Dog and so      watch this space.</li>
<li><strong>Body      Corporates &amp; Estate Managers </strong>– in one of our developments we have a big problem with the tenant      mix and it was affecting the whole development with badly behaved tenants      and little control. We brought in an estate manager from JHB who is really      tough and takes no sh*t and in less than 6 months he has turned that      development around.</li>
<li><strong>Offplan      developments overseas </strong>–      one has to be very careful when investing overseas as more than 80% of      people lose money. This year we experienced a massive problem with clients      who bought off-plan in 2008 and 2009. At the time we assisted them with      mortgage brokers and they were given assurances of being able to get      finance, based on the current criteria. However the problem in the UK and      Australia is you can only get final finance approval 6 months prior to      transfers (handover / settlement) and if you don’t get finance you lose      your 10% deposit. Therefore with a development transferring this year, and      the banks having completely changed their lending criteria, it provided a      nightmare. I do believe in business though it is not what you do when      things are going well, it is what you do when they go wrong. We did      everything in our power, including extensive negotiations with the      developers and getting finance through banks like the Bank of Nigeria and      Bank of Cyprus. After 6 months of hell and frustration for the clients, we      eventually managed to help 23 out of 30 clients get finance. Due to this      experience and never going to be able to control what the banks will do in      2 years time, we have updated our report for investing offshore to<strong><em> “The      6 things you have to know before you invest offshore!”</em></strong> and      changed our strategy to mitigate this risk. If you would like a copy,      email <a href="mailto:scott@ipsinvest.com">scott@ipsinvest.com</a></li>
<li><strong>Following      the market </strong>–      allot of people get caught up in the hype of whether the market is going      up or down. Bottom line is it is not about this, but about the individual      opportunities and whether they make great investments. As the Chinese say,      there is plenty of opportunity amongst chaos, but you have to have the      skills, strategies and tools to determine a great investment. In 2012 we      will be providing courses on how to do this.</li>
<li><strong>Auction      property </strong>–      although there is allot of talk about auction property and how much value      you can get there, it is very difficult process and you have to know what      you are doing. I was at an auction with a friend who bought a property and      he thought it was an absolute bargain until he went there the next day and      he saw hundreds of ‘to let’ and ‘for sale’ boards. I am not going to      regale you with hundreds of horror stories, but having dealt with this for      more than 18 months now, you need to understand it is very intricate      process, the banks are generally very disorganised, it is very frustrating      and fraught with problems. For this reason we will be launching a course      in 2012 about <strong>“How to buy auction property” </strong>as there are      great opportunities if you know what you are doing.</li>
<li><strong>Rand      Devaluation </strong>– we      had a number of clients invest overseas in the last 3 years. Although the      clients who have invested in Australia have seen great capital growth, the      ones in London have seen prices go fairly sideways. They are getting good      cash flow positive yields, but the bonus is that the Rand over time      consistently devalues and for this reason they have seen above average      returns on their Rand investment.</li>
<li><strong>Deal      behind the deal </strong>– in      negotiating the purchase of Student Accommodation in Sydney worth $34      million, I worked with two of my partners and friends. The one is worth      hundreds of millions and the other a billionaire and all made in property.      What seemed like a simple transaction, they thought out the box and      completely restructured the deal, to more than double the returns. People      without the skills would have bought the same property and got half the      returns.</li>
<li><strong>Be      prepared to walk away </strong>– on      the same deal, we actually walked away in the end. Even though we all      agreed it was the best investment opportunity we had found in Australia in      4 years, we could not get the seller to agree to our terms and so we      walked away. Bottom line is that successful and wealthy investors walk      away, unless they are getting the right returns on their capital.</li>
<li><strong>Indecision </strong>– I have found this year that people are very      concerned about what is happening in South Africa, but they are equally      concerned about what is happening in the global markets. Because of this      they have analysis paralysis and have done nothing. This is not necessarily      a bad thing, but as Warren Buffet says, <strong><em>“Be fearful when others      are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”</em></strong></li>
</ol>
<p>As it is the festive season I wanted to give you a gift. <a href="https://www.yousendit.com/download/T2dlT213cG9Ha044SjhUQw">Please click here to download</a> “Think and Grow Rich” by Napoleon Hill. This book was written in 1937 and has been the cause of more millionaires than any other book ever written. I listened to this book a third time when I ran comrades this year and if you apply the principles, you can literally create all the wealth you want in your life!</p>
<p>In conclusion, the 21st century is all about knowledge and wisdom. Sandra Carey said, <strong><em>“Never mistake knowledge for wisdom. One helps you make a living; the other helps you make a life”</em></strong> In 2012 IPS is going to go even further in providing you with wisdom and we have a number of online courses we will be launching in the new year and so watch out of them.</p>
<p>Here’s to 2012 and turning it into your best year yet!</p>
<p>Thanks</p>
<p>Scott Picken</p>
<p>IPS CEO</p>
<p><a href="http://www.ipsinvest.com/">www.ipsinvest.com</a></p>
<img src="http://www.propertytribe.co.za/?ak_action=api_record_view&id=720&type=feed" alt="" />]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Aus Property Market Update &#8211; Oct 2011 &#124; IPS &#124; Scott Picken</title>
		<link>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/aus-property-market-update-oct-2011-ips-scott-picken/691/</link>
		<comments>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/aus-property-market-update-oct-2011-ips-scott-picken/691/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Nov 2011 09:03:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Scott Picken</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International Property]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Property Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Property News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.propertytribe.co.za/?p=691</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Every couple of months, Scott Picken, IPS CEO flies to the international markets to review what is happening, the risks, the fundamentals and also the opportunities. This is the latest video and update from Australia.

For more information go to www.ipsinvest.com
PS Scott is completing a full investment report and this will be available in the next [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Every couple of months, Scott Picken, IPS CEO flies to the international markets to review what is happening, the risks, the fundamentals and also the opportunities. This is the latest video and update from Australia.</p>
<p><object width="500" height="375"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/wwbPKsxeRaI?version=3&#038;feature=oembed"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/wwbPKsxeRaI?version=3&#038;feature=oembed" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="500" height="375" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed></object></p>
<p>For more information go to www.ipsinvest.com</p>
<p>PS Scott is completing a full investment report and this will be available in the next few weeks.</p>
<img src="http://www.propertytribe.co.za/?ak_action=api_record_view&id=691&type=feed" alt="" />]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>5 years time, where will property and business be?</title>
		<link>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/5-years-time-where-will-property-business-be/656/</link>
		<comments>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/5-years-time-where-will-property-business-be/656/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Sep 2011 11:41:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Scott Picken</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International Property]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Property Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Property News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.propertytribe.co.za/?p=656</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[5 years time, where will property and business be? Looking at the latest trends we help you make educated and informed decisions about your future.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dear Wealth Creator</p>
<p>Property and business is all about creating wealth. Tony Robbins says that success in business, and property is a business, is <strong>80% psychology and 20% implementation</strong>. To be successful you need to model the best globally, you need to know what they are doing, implement it and then you will get the same results. You also need to be able to recognise patterns, so that you can gauge world events and make educated and informed decisions for your future.</p>
<p>For this reason, I will be joining <strong>Roger James Hamilton</strong>, Global Thought Leader and creator of Wealth Dynamics, in presenting with other Thought Leaders to discuss a few critical steps that could determine whether your business or the business you are creating, will succeed or fail in the near future, and that includes your property business?</p>
<p>I truly believe that one of  the greatest trends worldwide is <strong>Glocalisation</strong> – <strong>‘thinking globally, acting locally’.</strong><em></em> This workshop provides you with the opportunity to learn from the best globally and not something I would recommend missing if you want to be part of the future.</p>
<p>I look forward to you joining me there and please find the details below about the full day workshop event, <strong>especially the piece in bold. </strong><a href="http://micro.majesticinteractive.co.za/bf.php?fid=1285">Click here to secure your tickets now</a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://www.propertytribe.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/WD-11.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-658 aligncenter" src="http://www.propertytribe.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/WD-11.jpg" alt="" width="408" height="114" /></a></p>
<p>I will be one of the guests on stage that Roger will be interviewing as part of the Changemakers forum. Being part of the Changemakers forum also makes it possible for me to make a special offer to my network – I have negotiated a special deal!</p>
<p>In other words you will get:</p>
<ul>
<li>2 x tickets for the full day event,</li>
<li>2 x Wealth Dynamics Profiles,</li>
<li>2 x Wealth Spectrum profiles</li>
<li>for only R497</li>
<li>(or R1 697 if you choose the VIP tickets – only 10 still available)</li>
<li>Amazing value</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Fast Forward Your Business Events:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Johannesburg, Grayston Drive Southern Sun, Sandton, 12 September 2011</li>
<li>Cape Town, Seapoint Ritz Hotel, 15 September 2011</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Bonus Value over R2000 includes:-</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>2 x FREE Wealth Dynamics Profile – value R725,</li>
<li>2 x FREE Wealth Dynamics Spectrum Profile – value R280</li>
<li>plus the a FREE copy of Your Life Your Legacy e-book – value R75</li>
<li>Click here to secure you tickets now</li>
</ul>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://www.propertytribe.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/WD-2.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-659 aligncenter" src="http://www.propertytribe.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/WD-2-300x98.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="98" /></a></p>
<p>Limited amount of VIP Tickets at R1697 – including all the above PLUS VIP registration and  “front row” seating for the event as well as a Cocktail Lunch with Roger James Hamilton- number of VIP ticket available are LIMITED</p>
<p><a href="http://micro.majesticinteractive.co.za/bf.php?fid=1285">Click here to secure your tickets now</a></p>
<p><strong>The Fast Forward program does that &#8230; and more.</strong></p>
<p>What will our economy, technologies and customer’s habits look like in the next 5 years. They are changing rapidly and you need to be ready to profit from these and global changes taking place?</p>
<p>In the coming years, your customers will:</p>
<ul>
<li> buy differently,</li>
<li>pay differently,</li>
<li>be served differently and</li>
<li>have entirely different expectations on what they want and how they want it.</li>
</ul>
<p>And you&#8217;ll learn about what this means to your business or the business you work in, that almost no-one else knows about right now!</p>
<p>Find out how, if you don&#8217;t start taking action, your competitors will accelerate their businesses ahead by building their teams and harnessing resources differently, promote and partner differently and transform the way they make money.</p>
<p><a href="http://micro.majesticinteractive.co.za/bf.php?fid=1285">Click here to secure your tickets now</a></p>
<p><strong>During this event you will learn:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>How to take charge of your business and financial destiny.</li>
<li>The Top 10 trends are that will make or break your business in the next 5 years.</li>
<li>Discover where you are today and the specific steps YOU need to take to profit from the changes taking place &#8211; accelerate your business income and wealth.</li>
<li>How Million and Billion Dollar companies use and create teams to propel their business and wealth (and why you never have to go at it alone again).</li>
<li><strong>Understand the cycles and patterns of business, property, the share market and your life no matter what industry, location or position you are in.</strong></li>
<li>How the wealthy solve the exact same problems you may be hitting your head against every day…effectively and instantly…and how you too can focus on the most important tasks that will lead</li>
</ul>
<p>So What’s Stopping You From Achieving REAL ‘Business Success’, and Enjoying a HEALTHY 6 or 7 Figure Income?</p>
<p><a href="http://micro.majesticinteractive.co.za/bf.php?fid=1285">Click here to secure your tickets now</a></p>
<p>To helping you create wealth through property and business.</p>
<p>Thanks</p>
<p>Scott Picken</p>
<p>IPS CEO</p>
<p>www.ipsinvest.com</p>
<img src="http://www.propertytribe.co.za/?ak_action=api_record_view&id=656&type=feed" alt="" />]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Australia Housing Bubble or Strong Fundamentals?</title>
		<link>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/australia-housing-bubble-or-strong-fundamentals/654/</link>
		<comments>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/australia-housing-bubble-or-strong-fundamentals/654/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Aug 2011 22:13:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Scott Picken</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International Property]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Property News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.propertytribe.co.za/?p=654</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Australian Housing is in a bubble situation or whether it makes a sound long term investment?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Many of our clients are concerned at the moment and a frequent question is whether <strong>Australian Housing is in a bubble situation or whether it makes a sound long term investment?</strong> <a href="https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/256107378">Click here to sign up for the FREE webinar</a>.</p>
<p>For this reason the next <strong>Let’s Talk Property</strong> will be me interviewing <strong>Richard Dunn</strong>. Richard is one of the most experienced property investors in Australia and I want to get to the bottom of this concern and really understand what is going on in the market.<br />
<strong><br />
We will be exploring:</strong></p>
<p>1.	Risks in the economy?<br />
2.	Risks in the market?<br />
3.	Chances of a bubble scenario?<br />
4.	Fundamentals of the market?<br />
5.	What are the projections for the market?<br />
6.	What to avoid?<br />
7.	If I should invest? Where and in what?<br />
8.	Timing – should I take advantage of opportunities or wait?<br />
9.	Anything else I need to know about Australian property&#8230;</p>
<p>Basically if <strong>Australia and Offshore Property</strong> is something you are interested in, then this is not a webinar to miss. There is uncertainty, but we want to give you the facts so you can make educated and informed decisions about your future!</p>
<p>1.	Date: 	Monday, 29th August 2011<br />
2.	Time: 	7 – 8:30pm (SA time)<br />
3.	<a href="https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/256107378">Click here to register for FREE webinar</a></p>
<p>Finally we want to make this as interactive as possible. If you have any questions please send them to me, so that we can prepare and cover them thoroughly in the webinar. scott@ipsinvest.com</p>
<p>To helping you achieve <strong>wealth preservation, a plan b and peace of mind for you and your family</strong>.</p>
<p>Thanks</p>
<p>Scott Picken</p>
<p>PS If you are interested in Sydney, then please contact Kristen, we have some great opportunities at the moment! Kristen@ipsinvest.com </p>
<img src="http://www.propertytribe.co.za/?ak_action=api_record_view&id=654&type=feed" alt="" />]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Malemaproofing vs Debt Default</title>
		<link>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/malemaproofing-vs-debt-default/647/</link>
		<comments>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/malemaproofing-vs-debt-default/647/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Aug 2011 20:16:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Scott Picken</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International Property]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Property Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Property News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.propertytribe.co.za/?p=647</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Breakfast Event to discuss the Global Economy, USA, the UK, Australia and South Africa. With all the uncertainty what can one do?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Do any of these questions concern you or can you relate to them?</strong></p>
<p>1.	I love South Africa, but I am concerned about the future of South Africa with what Malema keeps saying?<br />
2.	Saying that, I am not sure where to invest as there is allot of uncertainty in the global markets?<br />
3.	Where is better to invest, South Africa, USA, the UK or Australia?<br />
4.	I would like to have a plan B, but I am not sure what to do?<br />
5.	I am concerned about the long term value of the Rand and preservation of my wealth?<br />
6.	I have heard investing offshore is very difficult and more than 80% of people lose money? How do I trust who to listen to?<br />
7.	I don’t know the markets and so don’t know where to start?<br />
8.	I think I can get better returns in South Africa at the moment, but I know it is wise to not have all my eggs in one basket.<br />
9.	How am I going to manage a property so far away?<br />
10.	All I know is that to give me and my family peace of mind, I must do something!</p>
<p>If any of these are pertinent to you, then you should be attending <a href="http://www.ipsinvest.com/Events_257_Malemaproofing_vs_Debt_Default_JHB_11_August_2011.aspx">our breakfast.</a></p>
<p>We continue to live in interesting times, as was seen by the Debt Deal yesterday.  We had such positive feedback from our webinar, <strong>“Clem Sunter; the Global Economic Outlook, including the USA, Australia and the UK reviews and South Africa’s future prospects”</strong>, we will be repeating it live in JHB next week. </p>
<p><strong>Scott Picken</strong> will be presenting, and he has a special guest, <strong>Richard Dunn</strong>, who is one of the leading experts in Australian Property. Richard will also be bringing some exciting investment opportunities from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, including affordable opportunities from less than $300 000. We will also compare these to USA and the UK opportunities.<br />
<strong><br />
Join us for our live breakfast.</strong></p>
<p>•	Date: 11th August 2011<br />
•	Time: 7am (presentation starts at 7:30am) – 8:30am<br />
•	Venue: Bryanston Country Club<br />
•	Cost: R200 (breakfast inclu) and money back guarantee if event not of value<br />
•	<a href="http://www.ipsinvest.com/Events_257_Malemaproofing_vs_Debt_Default_JHB_11_August_2011.aspx">Click here to Book</a></p>
<p><strong>To helping you achieve wealth preservation, a plan B and peace of mind.</strong></p>
<p>Thanks</p>
<p>Scott Picken<br />
IPS CEO</p>
<img src="http://www.propertytribe.co.za/?ak_action=api_record_view&id=647&type=feed" alt="" />]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Clem Sunter, South Africa, UK, Australia and Global Economy</title>
		<link>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/clem-sunter-south-africa-uk-australia-and-global-economy/604/</link>
		<comments>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/clem-sunter-south-africa-uk-australia-and-global-economy/604/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Jul 2011 09:12:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Scott Picken</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Property News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.propertytribe.co.za/?p=604</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Join us for our FREE Webinar &#8211; Click here to sign up.
This is a new video mail from Scott Picken
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Duration: 	2 minutes
Subject: 	Clem Sunter, South Africa, UK, Australia and Global Economy
Message: 	Join us for our FREE webinar
Date: 25th July 2011
Time: 7pm &#8211; 8pm (SA time)
We live in interesting times and therefore [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Join us for our FREE Webinar &#8211; <a href="https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/947057522">Click here to sign up.</a></p>
<p>This is a new video mail from Scott Picken</p>
<p><a href="http://www.eyejot.com/mview/C2FFBFB153C8B291C11E7478307B5497CF2D82AECDE84A8597AB5E447DBB5B42">Click here to watch video.</a></p>
<p>Duration: 	2 minutes<br />
Subject: 	Clem Sunter, South Africa, UK, Australia and Global Economy<br />
Message: 	Join us for our FREE webinar</p>
<p><strong>Date: 25th July 2011<br />
Time: 7pm &#8211; 8pm (SA time)</strong></p>
<p>We live in interesting times and therefore you need the best information, insights and techniques so that you can make the best educated decisions for your future.</p>
<p>Thanks</p>
<p>Scott Picken</p>
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		<title>Popping an Australian housing bubble fantasy</title>
		<link>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/popping-a-aus-housing-bubble-fantasy/600/</link>
		<comments>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/popping-a-aus-housing-bubble-fantasy/600/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Jul 2011 09:07:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Scott Picken</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International Property]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Christopher Joye
Published 6:25 AM, 6 Jul 2011 Last update 10:30 AM, 6 Jul 2011
Property Observer
In one corner we have journalists at The Economist newspaper, who in a recent survey made the extraordinary claim that Australian house prices are overvalued by 55 per cent using their preferred benchmark. In the other corner we have a crowd [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Christopher Joye<br />
Published 6:25 AM, 6 Jul 2011 Last update 10:30 AM, 6 Jul 2011</p>
<p>Property Observer</p>
<p>In one corner we have journalists at The Economist newspaper, who in a recent survey made the extraordinary claim that Australian house prices are overvalued by 55 per cent using their preferred benchmark. In the other corner we have a crowd of the most respected economic minds in Australia, including the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Commonwealth Treasury, almost all market economists, and leading house price index providers, such as RP Data and Rismark.</p>
<p>This latter cohort essentially contends that The Economist does not know what it is talking about. They argue that Australian house prices are not materially overvalued, and there is no reason to believe that they must suffer precipitous price falls in order to obtain some more desirable valuation benchmark.</p>
<p>This group has also produced vast reams of analysis showing that robust demand and supply-side fundamentals underpin Australian housing valuations while dwelling-price-to-income ratios remain unexceptional by international standards. In fact, recent research by Rismark has demonstrated that house price growth in Australia’s capital cities and our regional areas has not kept pace with disposable household income growth since the end of the last cycle in 2003.</p>
<p>It was only a few months ago in The Economist’s backyard, the city of London, that RBA governor Glenn Stevens was tossed a question about whether he was worried about Australian housing valuations. In the past – most notably in 2002 and 2003 – the central bank has not hesitated to express reservations. Yet Stevens responded:</p>
<p>“Well, let’s establish a few facts… For the past year or two, house prices haven’t done anything much at all… We continue to see arrears rates on mortgages very low by global standards &#8230;We don’t have a gearing up going on now… I don’t think we have huge rises going on&#8230; that’s probably not top of my list of worries…</p>
<p>“The other thing I’ll say is that it’s quite often quoted very high ratios of price to income for Australia, but if you get the broadest measures, a country-wide price and a country-wide measure of income, the ratio it about 4 ½ and it hasn’t moved much either way for 10 years. And that is higher than it used to be, but it’s actually not exceptional by a global standard as far as I can see.”</p>
<p>While the typically conservative RBA thinks Australia’s housing market is sitting pretty, The Economist’s survey suggests it is massively overvalued. In order to decipher who is right or wrong here, one has to dive into the detail.</p>
<p>The Economist arrives at its 56 per cent estimate by taking the ratio of median house prices to median rents, and then comparing current levels with their “long-run average”. There are many technical problems with this approach. One obvious issue is that we do not observe rents for more than two-thirds of the entire housing stock, which is ‘owner-occupied’. So The Economist is actually comparing the yields on rental properties with the prices of owner-occupied homes. Imputed owner-occupied rents are likely to be different to those deriving from investment properties given the far greater control rights associated with the former.</p>
<p>But this is a trivial error in the scheme of things. There is a much deeper problem with The Economist’s logic, which both the RBA and we here at Rismark have repeatedly highlighted. Let me explain.</p>
<p>Anyone can compare the current observed values of a range of economic indicators, such as interest rates or inflation, with their ‘long-term’ averages. But we need to ask ourselves whether this is an informative exercise, or potentially misleading.</p>
<p>For example, applying The Economist’s way of thinking to Australian interest rates would lead one to conclude that current rates are much too low. Indeed, the analysis implies that Australian government bonds are massively overvalued since today&#8217;s 10-year yields of 5.5 per cent are more than a third lower than the 30-year average of 9 per cent.</p>
<p>Yet the body that sets interest rates – the RBA – has repeatedly told us that present-day lending rates are, in fact, “a little higher” than their long-term averages. So what is going on?</p>
<p>As an alternative, let’s examine inflation. Today the RBA believes that the acceptable rate of consumer price inflation is around 2.5 per cent per annum. Yet the 30-year average rate is 4.2 per cent per annum. Does this mean that the RBA should substantially revise up its inflation target? Of course not.</p>
<p>These variables were not selected by chance. The truth is that the crux of this debate hinges on how inflation, interest rates, household debt, and house prices have varied over the last three decades.</p>
<p>In its survey, The Economist takes median house prices and median rents over the last circa 30 years – which is the longest horizon over which these data are publicly available – and calculates a long-term ‘average’ ratio, which it assumes to be the ‘correct’ benchmark. It then compares current house prices and rents to this 30-year benchmark. If current ratios are above (below) this 30-year average, The Economist claims they are over- (under-) valued.</p>
<p>The Economist does not question whether the old housing ratios might be nonsensical to today’s home owners as a result of: (a) fundamental changes in the structure of the economy wrought by the fact that interest rates over the past 15 years have, on average, been 43 per cent lower than interest rates in the 15 years that preceded that period (see first chart below); (b) the fact that average inflation since the middle of the 1990s has been 55 per cent lower than inflation in the 15 years prior (see second chart); or (c) the fact that the rise of two-income households and the female participation rate in concert with a near halving in the nominal cost of debt might have triggered a once-off upward increase in household purchasing power, and hence housing valuations.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/0bd6ea4d7e0e401eca257300000473fc/73880cd2c8e548f9ca2578c400199230/bodyrich/28.47AA!OpenElement&amp;FieldElemFormat=gif">http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/0bd6ea4d7e0e401eca257300000473fc/73880cd2c8e548f9ca2578c400199230/bodyrich/28.47AA!OpenElement&amp;FieldElemFormat=gif </a>click the image to enlarge</p>
<p><a href="http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/0bd6ea4d7e0e401eca257300000473fc/73880cd2c8e548f9ca2578c400199230/bodyrich/60.2EBE!OpenElement&amp;FieldElemFormat=gif">http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/0bd6ea4d7e0e401eca257300000473fc/73880cd2c8e548f9ca2578c400199230/bodyrich/60.2EBE!OpenElement&amp;FieldElemFormat=gif </a>click the image to enlarge</p>
<p>Now we have tried to replicate The Economist’s analysis using the longest publicly available time-series of median houses prices and median rents in Australia, which one can purchase from the Real Estate Institute of Australia. This covers the period June 1982 through to December 2010.</p>
<p>If we adopt The Economist’s method, we conclude that the current ratio of median Australian house prices to median rents is about 38.7 per cent above its 28-year average. We do not know how The Economist gets its 56 per cent estimate, but ours is in the same general ballpark.</p>
<p>Interestingly, we can get a 56 per cent number if we look at inflation over this exact same period. Australia’s current inflation rate of 2.7 per cent would have to rise by 56 per cent to agree with its long-term average of 4.2 per cent since June 1982. But, of course, nobody in their right mind would claim that this makes any sense. It is just that The Economist uses this logic when it analyses housing.</p>
<p>One can undertake a similar exercise with interest rates. The headline mortgage rate today is 7.8 per cent. The average headline rate since June 1982 is 9.9 per cent. Does this then mean that Australian mortgage rates are currently way too low? Applying The Economist’s method, Aussie home loan rates should rise by 27 per cent in order to correspond with this historical benchmark.</p>
<p>As we mentioned earlier, imposing that logic on the Australian government bond market would imply that it is in the throes of an enormous bubble since yields are more than a third lower than their 30-year average.</p>
<p>To really understand what is going on here one needs to examine the time path of three economic variables: inflation; interest rates; and rental yields.</p>
<p>As you can see from the chart above, Australian inflation has steadily declined from its high and volatile double digit levels in the 1980s to sit within the RBA&#8217;s 2 to 3 per cent per annum target band during most of the past two decades. This has allowed the central bank to in turn reduce interest rates.</p>
<p>In the RBA’s view, the long-term reduction in inflation has mainly been a function of the early 1990s recession and its adoption of what is known as an ‘inflation target’. The RBA’s 2 to 3 per cent target was first taken up in about 1993, and more formally enshrined in an agreement between the RBA and the Treasurer in 1996.</p>
<p>Between 1982 and 1995, mortgage rates in Australia averaged 12.8 per cent. Since the start of 1996, they have averaged 7.3 per cent (or 43 per cent less). The RBA considers today’s mortgage rate of 7.8 per cent to be slightly “above” its historical average because the RBA believes that the history that is relevant to today starts with the application of the inflation targeting approach to monetary policy in the early 1990s. Yet we don’t hear The Economist claiming that Australian mortgage rates are too low. (In fact, Australian mortgage rates are today amongst the highest in the developed world.)</p>
<p>The RBA has regularly argued that the structural decline in inflation, and the resultant downward shift in nominal interest rates, in turn drove a once-off upward shift in household’s borrowing (and purchasing) power. This has been reflected in the once-off jump in household debt levels, which basically occurred between 1996 and 2003. This marked rise in household borrowing power also boosted their purchasing power and hence the value of readily leveraged assets, such as houses.</p>
<p>In the following chart, we track the change in Australian mortgage rates and rental yields since 1982. The message is clear: the secular decline in nominal interest rates has propagated a corresponding fall in yields.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/0bd6ea4d7e0e401eca257300000473fc/73880cd2c8e548f9ca2578c400199230/bodyrich/92.4DBA!OpenElement&amp;FieldElemFormat=gif">http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/0bd6ea4d7e0e401eca257300000473fc/73880cd2c8e548f9ca2578c400199230/bodyrich/92.4DBA!OpenElement&amp;FieldElemFormat=gif </a>click the image to enlarge</p>
<p>Our final chart tells the same story by comparing Australia’s dwelling price-to-disposable household income ratio (bottom line) with Australia’s rent-to-dwelling price ratio (top line) over the last two decades. Observe how these ratios look like mirror images of each other. The common driver has been inflation and interest rates.</p>
<p>The RBA believes that as interest rates started to stabilise at their new, much lower levels in the late 1990s, and households got comfortable with the idea that both rates and inflation were unlikely to jump back to the double digit levels of the 1980s, there was a consequential upward increase in the valuation &#8216;level&#8217; of housing assets. This had been fully priced by the early 2000s, which is why the two ratios track sideways thereafter.</p>
<p>To be clear, the RBA&#8217;s ability to get inflation under control (and thus cut the long-term level of nominal interest rates) caused increases in the household debt-to-income, household debt-to-GDP, house price-to-income, and house price-to-rent ratios. In the jargon, these were &#8216;level effects&#8217; rather than &#8216;growth effects&#8217;. This means that the very rapid double digit credit growth of the 1990s and early 2000s will not be repeated anytime soon.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/0bd6ea4d7e0e401eca257300000473fc/73880cd2c8e548f9ca2578c400199230/bodyrich/126.2A62!OpenElement&amp;FieldElemFormat=gif">http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/0bd6ea4d7e0e401eca257300000473fc/73880cd2c8e548f9ca2578c400199230/bodyrich/126.2A62!OpenElement&amp;FieldElemFormat=gif </a>click the image to enlarge</p>
<p>Unless you believe that we are going to get double digit inflation and 17 per cent mortgage rates, which most observers think are near impossibilities, the housing market benchmarks of the 1980s are irrelevant to home owners in the second decade of the 2000s. The same principle applies to The Economist’s analysis.</p>
<p>It would, of course, be wonderful if our ever-changing, multi-dimensional world could be judged by crude long-term ratios that blissfully ignore all sorts of key facts. Unfortunately, that&#8217;s just a recipe for confusing further an issue that already has many confused.</p>
<p>Looking ahead, it is highly likely that Australian house prices will track household earnings in what PIMCO&#8217;s Bill Gross has aptly described as the &#8216;New Normal&#8217;.</p>
<p>This article first appeared Property Observer on July 5, 2011. Republished with permission.</p>
<p>For more information contact Scott at scott@ipsinvest.com for the latest market reports.</p>
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		<title>What does sales training mean to you? Financial freedom or poverty? Which do you choose?</title>
		<link>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/what-does-sales-training-mean-to-you-financial-freedom-or-poverty-which-do-you-choose/573/</link>
		<comments>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/what-does-sales-training-mean-to-you-financial-freedom-or-poverty-which-do-you-choose/573/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jun 2011 09:47:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Scott Picken</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Property News]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[&#8220;If you want something you&#8217;ve never had before, you must do something you&#8217;ve never done before. &#8221;
 &#8211; Drina Reed 

Do you want more money, freedom, time with your family, overseas holidays, financial independence or event financial freedom? In this video I share with you the secret how you can achieve it. Do you know [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;If you want something you&#8217;ve never had before, you must do something you&#8217;ve never done before. &#8221;<br />
 &#8211; Drina Reed </p>
<p><object width="500" height="306"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/YOjt2KY_KOI?version=3"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/YOjt2KY_KOI?version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="500" height="306" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed></object></p>
<p>Do you want more money, freedom, time with your family, overseas holidays, financial independence or event financial freedom? In this video I share with you the secret how you can achieve it. Do you know that 94% of people retire poor, dependent on the government or still have to work at 65. Only 1% retire rich. Also 5% of self made millionaires in USA are sales people who worked for companies. So how did they do it?</p>
<p>In sales the top 1% earns the majority of the money and so if you want to be like them there is one simple solution. Model them. Learn what they are doing and do the same. It is the principle of cause and effect. Find out the effects you want and then implement the same causes. The best thing is that we all start in the bottom 10% and then we work our way up. The one thing which is NB is that the best in South Africa is no longer good enough. You have to model the best globally!</p>
<p>The speed at which we work our way to the top and our ultimate destiny is determined by our decisions, the action we take and whether we are prepared to invest in ourselves.</p>
<p>In this video Scott Picken shares with you the multiplication effect, compounding and how to reach the top 1% and ultimately have all the freedom you want in your life.</p>
<p>For more information go to <a href="http://www.doubleyoursales.co.za">www.doubleyoursales.co.za </a></p>
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		<title>Social Proofing, Social Media and Your future.</title>
		<link>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/social-proofing-social-media-and-your-future/557/</link>
		<comments>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/social-proofing-social-media-and-your-future/557/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 May 2011 16:44:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Scott Picken</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International Property]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Online Property]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Privateproperty.co.za News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Property Investment]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.propertytribe.co.za/?p=557</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Property, social media, social proof]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It took Barnes and Noble (the biggest book store in USA) 32 years to reach $1 billion in turnover and it took Amazon 4 years. The shots that took down Osama bin Laden were shots heard ’round the Twitterverse. A mind-boggling record of 12.4 million tweets per hour(5,106 tweets per second around the time of President Obama’s speech) helped to place all topics connected to the biggest news story of the year at number one. 2/3 of the global internet population visits social networks. 5 billion people in the world are on mobile and connected. 2.6 billion minutes are spent on Facebook every day. 13 hours of YouTube is uploaded every minute. 100 000 000 YouTube videos viewed every day. If Facebook were a country in terms of population it would be the fouth largest in the world! As of 2009, 78% of social media users interact with companies or brands via new media sites and tools, an increase of 32% from 2008.</p>
<p>If you don’t understand social media and get involved you will go out of business. Agreed it is not vital at the moment, but it is impossible to ignore the trends and by the time it comes it will be too late. Robert Kiyosaki (Rich Dad Poor Dad) in his latest book Conspiracy of the Rich, said the best way to build wealth was to follow long term trends and this is certainly one you need to know about!</p>
<p>The beauty with social media is that you can’t spend your way to the top. The only way to build a credible reputation is through time and consistency of you application.  This is known as social proofing where you build a following (like your account in Ebay and the way you perform). One day we will all have a social proof, which will be like you ID for both yourself and your company. Your track record will follow you. This is awesome as those that are experts and deliver a valuable service or product will be able to charge more and those that don’t perform will go out of business or have to seriously discount their prices. No more developers selling properties and then building rubbish or dodgy estate agents getting away with murder. You will only be as valuable as your track record and with the transparency of the internet; everyone will be able to see your performance. As Steven Covey says, the 21st Century is the Trust Economy and everything is going to be determined by trust and your social proof will be your indicator or the factor it is based on.</p>
<p>The best way to be successful is to model the best, learn what they are doing and then follow them. It is no coincidence that the best in the world are putting a huge focus into their social media strategies.</p>
<p>Anyone think it is only for kids? By the summer of 2009, over one-third of US Facebook users were over the age of 35 and about half that group was over 45. Early in 2009, InsideFacebook.com reported that the fastest growing demographic on Facebook was women over 55.</p>
<p>The sooner you start the sooner you start to build that track record and most importantly your social proof. You need to be on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Linked In at a minimum and you have to start to learn about video as this is the future.</p>
<p>This was a friendly reminder to the property industry to start communicating, or seriously consider the consequences.</p>
<p>If you have any questions please contact me on scott@doubleyoursales.co.za. I would love to know your thoughts.</p>
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		<title>Let’s talk property &#8211; South African property and how to evaluate the best investments?</title>
		<link>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/let%e2%80%99s-talk-property-south-african-property-and-how-to-evaluate-the-best-investments/546/</link>
		<comments>http://www.propertytribe.co.za/index.php/let%e2%80%99s-talk-property-south-african-property-and-how-to-evaluate-the-best-investments/546/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 May 2011 20:05:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Scott Picken</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Property Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Property News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.propertytribe.co.za/?p=546</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Scott Picken, IPS CEO will interview Dr Hannes Dreyer, the global leader in Wealth Creation. Retiring at 37 and living off his property portfolio, Dr Dreyer devised a successful strategy for analysing any property to ensure you can retire and have financial freedom as soon as possible. The most important component is his strategy works [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Scott Picken, IPS CEO will interview Dr Hannes Dreyer, the global leader in Wealth Creation.</strong> Retiring at 37 and living off his property portfolio, Dr Dreyer devised a successful strategy for analysing any property to ensure you can retire and have financial freedom as soon as possible. The most important component is his strategy works in a rising market as well as a falling market, something no one else in South Africa can prove and show their successful results.</p>
<p><strong><em>What will be covered:</strong></em></p>
<p>i.	What is happening with SA property market? Where is it going?<br />
ii.	How to analysis a property investment?<br />
iii.	How to calculate the risks and growth?<br />
iv.	How to decide whether to sell property you have – which is not great property?<br />
v.	How to find the best properties in South Africa?</p>
<p><strong>96% of people in South Africa will retire poor and only 1% will retire financially free.</strong></p>
<p>Do you want to join them?</p>
<p>Then this is not something you can afford to miss&#8230;<br />
We won’t leave until all the questions are answered and you have the knowledge and your plan!</p>
<p>•	Date: 16th May 2011<br />
•	Time: 7pm – 8:30pm (SA time)<br />
•	Price: R250 (first 100 are free)<br />
•	Click here to book &#8211; <a href="https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/277538411">https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/277538411 </a></p>
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